En enero de 2025, la economía de EE. UU. mostró señales mixtas, evidenciando tanto fortaleza como nuevos desafíos en múltiples sectores.
Tendencias de Actividad Empresarial y Empleo
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, reaching its lowest point since April. Even with this reduction, the index stayed above the 50 mark, suggesting ongoing expansion. The deceleration was mainly due to the services sector, whereas manufacturing saw growth for the first time in seven months, spurred by anticipated loosened regulations and reduced taxes under the current administration. Remarkably, businesses ramped up hiring at the fastest pace in two and a half years, reflecting optimism about future economic conditions.
Confianza y Gasto del Consumidor
In January, consumer confidence decreased for the second month in a row. The Conference Board announced a drop in its consumer confidence index to 104.1, down from 109.5 in December, which did not meet economists’ predictions. This decline illustrates increasing worries among Americans about present economic circumstances and future outlooks. Despite increased borrowing expenses, retail sales climbed by 0.4% in December, showing strong consumer spending over the holiday period. However, perceptions of current job market conditions became less optimistic, and short-term forecasts for income, business, and employment diminished, nearing levels that might indicate a possible recession.
Consumer confidence dipped for the second consecutive month in January. The Conference Board reported a decline in its consumer confidence index to 104.1 from 109.5 in December, falling short of economists’ expectations. This decrease reflects growing concerns among Americans regarding current economic conditions and future prospects. Despite higher borrowing costs, retail sales rose by 0.4% in December, indicating robust consumer spending during the holiday season. However, views on current labor market conditions weakened, and short-term expectations for income, business, and employment declined, approaching levels that could signal a potential recession.
Consumer inflation expectations have increased significantly. According to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, expected inflation for the upcoming year rose to 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December, reaching its highest point since May. Long-term inflation expectations also rose to 3.3%, the most elevated since June 2008. These elevated expectations might affect actual inflation, as businesses may feel more confident in increasing prices. In reaction to these changes, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% target range at its forthcoming meeting, taking a measured stance on monetary policy amid ongoing inflation worries.
Inflation expectations among consumers have risen notably. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated that anticipated inflation for the next year increased to 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December, marking the highest level since May. Long-term inflation expectations also climbed to 3.3%, the highest since June 2008. These heightened expectations could influence actual inflation, as businesses may feel more justified in raising prices. In response to these developments, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range of 4.25% to 4.50% in its upcoming meeting, adopting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns.
Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market remains robust, with initial claims for unemployment benefits rising slightly by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending January 18, 2025. This marginal increase suggests that layoffs remain low, even as job opportunities become scarcer due to employer caution in expanding headcounts. The resilience of the labor market supports the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause further interest rate cuts as it assesses the necessary duration of tight monetary policy to achieve a neutral rate of interest.
Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty.
