An alliance of rebel forces in war-torn Myanmar has captured several key towns from the country’s military rule in recent weeks, the most successful challenge to the junta that seized power in a 2021 coup and the latest evidence of how overwhelmed the military has become. .
Early successes in the alliance’s campaign, which began in Shan State late last month, have emboldened resistance forces elsewhere in the country, who have also captured several towns.
Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, called a meeting of the defense and security council on Wednesday and said the military had lost control of three towns in Shan State – the first official recognition losses. – and said the military was “determined to take the necessary measures to counter their acts of terrorism.” But so far, it doesn’t appear to have taken much action.
“We are on day 14, and there has been no real response from the military other than a series of meetings and sabre-rattling,” said Jason Tower, Myanmar country director for the United States Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan research organization. “I think that says a lot.”
Myint Swe, the interim president installed by the military after the coup, warned at the same meeting on Wednesday that the country was at risk of being broken up.
The offensive began on October 27 after three ethnic armies – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army – announced “Operation 1027 “. The rebels, who call themselves Brotherhood Alliance, opened fire on the military, capturing trucks and weapons, according to videos posted on social media.
The alliance and the government of national unity, the shadow civilian government, said on Friday they had taken control of seven towns in Shan state, including several crucial trade routes to China, and three others in the central region of Sagaing. Together, these cities cover more than 5,000 square miles, larger than the state of Delaware.
The junta is now on the verge of losing control of its most important border crossings, which account for more than 40% of cross-border trade vital to tax revenue, according to the U.S. Institute of Peace.
On Friday, Zaw Min Tun, the military spokesperson, called on the public “not to believe rumors and propaganda.” “I would like to say that the problem will soon be resolved and a safe situation will be restored,” he said in a statement.
The army has been plagued by defections and struggled to recruit from a population still angry at military rule.
For two years, the different armed ethnic groups, who have been fighting the army for decades, and the People’s Defense Forces – former protesters who took up arms – have joined forces and now control large parts of the territory. But these groups operate autonomously and are fragmented across Myanmar.
Today, the resistance movement has been galvanized by the successes of the Muslim Brotherhood Alliance.
On Monday, the People’s Defense Forces announced they had taken control of Kawlin, a town in the Upper Sagaing region, by raising their flag in front of a government building. On Tuesday, Karenni resistance forces said they had captured three military outposts in the eastern town of Mese. The same day, the People’s Defense Forces announced that they had taken control of Khampat, a town in the west of the country.
U Kyaw Naing, spokesperson for the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, said the alliance had captured more than 150 military outposts.
And Lt. Col. Tar Aik Kyaw, spokesman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, said more than 300 soldiers had surrendered in Shan State, with some laying down their arms without engaging in combat.
But Richard Horsey, senior adviser on Myanmar at the International Crisis Group, cautioned that it may be too early to call this a turning point.
“There is no straight line between battlefield unrest in a region like Northern Shan and regime failure,” he said. “They have been doing this for 70 years, fighting very difficult battles in quite large parts of Myanmar, and yet it has not led to a military collapse. »
The threat of an extension of the conflict has also raised fears of a humanitarian crisis. Local aid workers say more than 30,000 people are displaced, many fleeing on foot to Lashio, Shan State’s largest city, among other places.
Shan State is the largest state in Myanmar, covering almost a quarter of the country. For decades, various ethnic groups have been fighting for more territorial control within the state. Once known as the center of the country’s opium production, it is now home to dozens of fraudulent casinos and resorts.
Thousands of Chinese citizens have been trafficked to these centers, and in recent months China has worked to shut them down and repatriate its residents. Laukkai, in particular, is a hub of these scam centers. Some refugees from that city have fled to China and last week Thailand’s deputy police chief said the country planned to repatriate 162 Thai citizens who were detained there.
On Tuesday, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said the Chinese government had lodged a protest with “relevant parties” in Myanmar because the fighting had resulted in the deaths of Chinese citizens.
A day earlier, China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Nong Rong urged Myanmar officials to maintain stability on the China-Myanmar border. China, which expressed support for military rule after the coup, is building a billion-dollar railway line in Shan State as part of its Belt and Road infrastructure program.
Several analysts believe that the offensive would not have happened without the implicit approval of China, which exerts great influence over many of these ethnic groups, and has done nothing to stop the operation despite signs that preceded it.
Amy Chang Chien contributed reporting from Taipei.
