Polls suggest the center-left Labor Party is poised to return to power after more than a decline in opposition, which would lead to a fundamental realignment of British politics.
How does Britain vote?
The United Kingdom, made up of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, is divided into 650 constitutions.
Voters in each constituency choose a candidate to represent them as an MP, and the political party that wins the most seats usually forms the next government. The leader of this party also becomes Prime Minister.
To obtain an overall majority, a party must obtain 326 seats. If the ruling party fails to do so, the result is known as a “hung parliament” and the party may attempt to form a coalition government with other parties. In 2010, the Conservatives joined forces with the Liberal Democrats to form Britain’s first coalition government since the Second World War. 2017the Conservatives allied themselves with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
What are the main issues?
THE state of the British economy it’s here major problem for most voters today, according to polls, following a cost-of-living crisis and record inflation – which has reached a peak of 11.1 percent in 2022 and has only recently started to return to target levels.
Another major priority is the National Health Service, the publicly funded health system that provides free care across the country. A decade of fiscal austerity that began under Prime Minister David Cameron after the 2009 global financial crisis has left Britain’s public services deeply underfunded and facing chronic staff shortages. Waiting lists for NHS treatment were already growing before the pandemic and have since exploded uppera major source of public dissatisfaction.
Immigration comes third on many voters’ lists, although its importance differs greatly depending on party preferences. Just 20 percent of Labor voters said it was one of their most pressing national concerns, compared to 65 percent of Conservatives in 2017. a recent survey conducted by YouGov.
Who is running and who is likely to win?
Britain’s two largest parties are the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and the Labor Party, led by Keir Starmer, a former prosecutor and human rights lawyer.
Labor maintained a double-digit advance in the polls for more than 18 months, during which the conservatives suffered a series of crushing defeats in special parliamentary elections and elections for mayors and local councils. Although polls are often close in the final weeks of an election campaign, analysts say the Conservatives would need to achieve something almost miraculous to win a majority.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party has become the most popular party in 2015, moving Labor there. But a funding scandal and Nicola Sturgeon’s departure as first minister have weakened the party’s support over the past year. Polls now suggest Labor has a chance of gaining ground in Scotland this time around, which would smooth Mr Starmer’s path to the prime ministership.
The populist Reform Party, co-founded by Brexit champion Nigel Farage, increased in polls These last months. Conservative Party officials fear the anti-immigration party will turn supporters away from their candidates, although Mr Farage’s decision not to stand as a candidate will have been welcomed by the Tories.
Two other parties, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, made considerable progress during local elections in early May. But while both aim to win seats in July, Britain’s electoral system makes it harder for smaller parties to win seats in general elections.
When will we know the results?
Just after the polls close, on July 4 at 10 p.m., exit poll results are announced, based on surveys of thousands of voters after they cast their ballots.
Exit polls are not always accurate: in the 1992 and 2015 UK elections they predicted a hung Parliament, when in fact the Conservative Party won a majority. But they have become increasingly reliable in the country in recent years and are generally seen as providing a good early indication of how the public is voting.
